On the Verge | S.S. Mailbag

By defeating the visiting New Orleans Saints in Week 17, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an opportunity to win the

NFC South for a record three times in a row. That statement would have been, if not downright absurd, at least

extremely hopeful four weeks ago. But that’s what a team’s chances of making the playoffs can be affected by a four-

game winning streak, especially in a division without a clear favorite.

Even if the Bucs fall short against the Saints on Sunday, they can still win the division if they defeat the Panthers in

Charlotte in Week 18. Should they be successful on any of those weekends, the Bucs will have accomplished

something that is both very unusual and a recurrence of an event that occurred just a year ago.

With six games remaining in the 2022 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had a 4-7 record after Week 12, were

three points behind the Tennessee Titans (7-4), who led the AFC South. After dropping to 4-8 after one more loss in

Week 13, Jacksonville would go on to win four straight games. The Titans, however, were in the middle of a losing

run that would last seven games and terminate the season. They traveled to Jacksonville in Week 18, where they had

a last-minute opportunity to reclaim the division, but they lost the game. Rather, with three minutes remaining,

outside linebacker Josh Allen recovered a fumble for a score, giving Jacksonville a 20-16 victory and the division title.

After a dismal 4–7 start, Jacksonville became the first team to make the playoffs since 2020. That season,

Washington did just that, finishing 7-9 in the NFC East and dropping a home game against the Buccaneers, who

were headed to the Super Bowl, in the Wild Card round. But it had just been a year since a team finished the season

with a winning record as opposed to a 4–7 record. The Detroit Lions achieved that in 2022, going 9-8, and they

maintained that momentum in 2023, winning their first division championship in thirty years.

There have been 213 teams with a 4-7 record after their first 11 games since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The NFL

schedule featured just 14 games per team from 1970 to 1977, which clearly gave those teams less time to recover from

a bad start. Consequently, at that time, no 4–7 clubs were able to advance to the playoffs. The 1974 Eagles and Jets

were the only teams that could mathematically finish at.500 by winning their final three games.

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