Former No. 3 Pick Now on Cowboys ‘Roster Bubble’ for 2024: Expert

For the Cowboys, the trade that brought former 49ers first-round pick Trey Lance—the No. 3 overall choice in 2021—to Dallas in the offseason remains an odd one.

Not only has Lance not taken a snap for the team all season, but he has remained firmly ensconced as the No. 3 on the depth chart, behind starter Dak Prescott and backup Cooper Rush, who has made six appearances mopping up for Prescott this year.

Lance is so far off the radar that he barely came up in Cowboys rumors at the trade deadline.

Lance is 23 years old, in his third NFL season and needs to get on the field. He has thrown just 56 NFL passes in eight career appearances.

This has been, essentially, a wasted year in Lance’s development. Now, the Cowboys, after having coughed up a fourth-round pick for Lance in August, are going to have to make a choice about whether to keep him around or not.

According to the contract website Spotrac, Lance is very much on the “roster bubble” for the Cowboys in 2024

According to NFL contract analyst Mike Ginnitti, Trey Lance’s whole 2024 salary of $5.3 million is guaranteed. It’s difficult to think he’s tradeable (again), thus Dallas will have to pay him to depart or turn him into an above-average paid QB2 for the upcoming year.

Keeping Trey Lance Would Waste Cap Space

These are not appetizing options for the Cowboys. They could keep Rush on board as the backup, with an option for one year and $2.25 million. That’s a much cheaper way to go than cutting Rush loose and bumping Lance up to No. 2, and it’s also the choice that encourages more stability—Rush has been with the Cowboys for 10 of his 12 NFL seasons.

But keeping Rush means jettisoning Lance. And that means paying him $5.3 million and losing the 2024 fourth-rounder for a player who did absolutely nothing for the franchise all season.

The Cowboys could seek to trade him again, but he will not have been on an NFL field for nearly two years when the 2024 season opens. As Ginnitti notes, no one is going to want to give up assets for Trey Lance in that case.

Back in October, SI.com’s Mike Fisher reported on the Cowboys rumors that suggested the team does intend to keep Lance in place.

“The Cowboys, two sources tell CowboysSI.com, do not plan to exercise the fifth-year option on Lance in the spring of 2025, as that would cost about $25 million. … but do plan on finding a way to keep him in Dallas,” Fisher wrote.

Cowboys Rumors Will Focus on Dak Prescott

In the summer, back when the Cowboys made the surprising deal for Lance, the theory was that he could be used as a bargaining chip when the team sat down to work out a new deal with Prescott, who is due a sizable contract extension.

The thinking was that the Cowboys could claim confidence in Lance as their quarterback of the future and, therefore, not be pressured to overpay Prescott.

That strategy has failed, though, as Prescott has enjoyed an MVP-caliber season despite a few unsatisfactory performances over the last two weeks.

The Cowboys will have to pay Prescott generously, and the idea that the Cowboys would bench Prescott in favor of Trey Lance would not be accepted by Prescott’s representatives or any other sentient entity with even a passing knowledge of football.

Prescott is not going anywhere, and Rush is unlikely to go anywhere, either. If anyone leaves, it is Lance, who now is firmly on the roster bubble.

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