How to use Rodri’s absence to Emery’s advantage to defeat Guardiola for the first time.

How to use Rodri’s absence to Emery’s advantage to defeat Guardiola for the first time.

How to use Rodri’s absence to Emery’s advantage to defeat Guardiola for the first time.

It appears like Manchester City has entered a challenging phase of their play without anyone noticing.

They have only won 12 points from their last eight league games,

having drawn their last three Premier League games and surrendering 10 goals in their

last four games across all competitions.

Given that Aston Villa has won 13 straight Premier League games—their longest streak since

October 1931—now is not the best time to visit Villa Park. But, as the workload from the

schedule starts to wear on them, Villa is showing some indications of slowing down, just like Man City.

Although Villa’s form is much better at Villa Park, their 2-2 draw with AFC Bournemouth

on Sunday was somewhat fortunate. Another midweek matchup will be taxing on the legs,

particularly for players like Ollie Watkins, John McGinn, and Douglas Luiz,

who have started every league game this season.

However, there are still many reasons to think Villa can win and possibly even catch up to Man City in the standings.

Rodri’s suspension gives Villa a significant advantage. Six of Man City’s 16 Premier League

losses since his debut in 2019–20—that is, 37.5% of the games—have come from missing him.

The two most recent losses were 1-0 at Arsenal and 2-1 at Wolves earlier in the season.

Villa is great at counterattacks; they rank second in the Premier League for

“direct attacks” (37), and Man City lacks an orchestrator at the base of midfield without Rodri,

making them more susceptible to such tactics.

In order to overload the Rodri-less danger zone, Unai Emery will sit Villa a little deeper

and apply some pressure before attacking the visitors in large numbers through their softer center.

He will also use his usual narrow wingers in the half-spaces.

As a matter of fact, only Man City—at 32% and 31%, respectively—attack down the

center column of the pitch more frequently than Villa. Leon Bailey and McGinn will try to scuttle

inside whenever possible in an attempt to take advantage of any weakness in Man City,

just like Tottenham Hotspur did in their Sunday 3-3 draw.

Dejan Kulusevski and Giovani Lo Celso got a lot of action in central attacking midfield after the break.

This was due in part to Spurs’ bravery in escaping Man City’s intense press, which Villa will undoubtedly see, and in part to Pep Guardiola’s team’s inferior midfield this season.

Emery has never beaten Guardiola in 13 previous meetings, encompassing spells at Arsenal,

Valencia and Villa. He might not get a better chance than this.

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