Saints vs. Falcons prediction: Can the Saints keep their season alive?

Saints vs. Falcons prediction: Can the Saints keep their season alive?

In Week 18, the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons, who are in the same division, will square off.

The Saints still have a chance to win both the NFC South division title and a wildcard berth,

but defeating the Falcons is the only way they can do so.

In this win-or-go-home game, the Saints are 3-point favourites according to Caesars Sportsbook’s oddsmakers.

The Bucs must also lose in order to win the NFC South,

and both the Packers and Seahawks must lose in order to qualify for the wildcard.

The Saints still have optimism going into the regular season finale,

despite their current 25% probability of making the playoffs.

I’ll break down who I like in this matchup and offer my best bet.

Why to cheer for the Saints

With a victory over the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17,

the Saints put on their best show of the season.

They seem to be building momentum going into this week’s crucial matchup.

The Saints offence has been inconsistent at times,

but Derek Carr has improved in the second half of the year and ought to be able to improve on his performance in the team’s first game against the Falcons,

where he threw an interception and no touchdowns.

The Saints defence outperformed the Bucs, forcing Baker Mayfield into errors early in the game.

They should be able to repeat that performance this week against the faltering Falcons,

who feature a wounded quarterback in Taylor Heinicke.

Motives for admiring the Falcons

Despite an ugly loss to the Bears last week and a victory over the Saints in their first meeting,

the Falcons’ odds of making the playoffs are even slimmer than those of the Saints.

The Falcons running game, led by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, may be deadly.

They will probably give the Saints a lot of Robinson because of his success against them in Week 12.

Heinicke and the passing game haven’t found a rhythm yet.

After an unexpectedly subpar performance, the Falcons defence should be able to turn things around this week.

That week, they were able to mostly shut down Derek Carr and the Saints offence.

In summary

Although the Saints seem capable of winning and perhaps sneaking into the playoffs,

I’m sceptical given their patchy performance this season.

The Saints defence has taken advantage of an easy schedule to make their numbers look good by winning games against teams like the Giants and Patriots,

but the offence still hasn’t developed to the point where it can be relied upon to outscore an opponent.

Despite having less overall skill and an underappreciated weapon in kicker Younghoe Koo,

the Falcons proved they could slow down the Saints, and they will probably do so again.

As a result, I predict that the Saints will close their season with a walk-off field goal for the second consecutive year.

The pick: Falcons 20, Saints 19

Betting line: Falcons (+3, +143) at Saints (-170), 42 O/U

Best bet: Falcons +3 (+100)

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