2023 Cowboys analytics roundup: Miami loss hasn’t changed much
The Cowboys’ subsequent road loss added credence to the notion that this club faces difficulties away from AT&T Stadium. Given the high probability that the Cowboys will play their entire postseason on the road, that is a troubling narrative.
But when it comes to these Cowboys, the sophisticated measures that account for all of the different aspects—such as opponent caliber and other variables like home/away splits—remain mostly unchanged. This team’s general strength doesn’t appear to have improved all that much despite the extremely close loss to the Dolphins. Let’s examine the figures in more detail.
Cowboys Efficiency at a Glance
DVOA | DVOA Rank | DVOA Rank Previous Rank | Weighted DVOA | Weighted DVOA Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 8.6% | 9th | 9th | 11.6% | 7th |
Defense | -6.8% | 6th | 6th | -3.2% | 11th |
Special Teams | 2.7% | 6th | 7th | 3.3% | 6th |
Overall | 18.0% | 6th | 6th | 18.0% | 5th |
Notice anything? The Cowboys didn’t move up or down in the rankings for overall, offensive, or defensive DVOA from last week to this week. The only category where they saw any movement was special teams, which bumped up one spot despite the special teams DVOA grade literally not changing at all.
All of this goes to show that the Cowboys’ loss to the Dolphins really didn’t mean much in terms of these stats. That makes sense, given that both of these teams have been near the top of the DVOA leaderboards for quite some time, and they played a very close game.
It also means the Cowboys remain one of the top teams in the league, a good spot to be in heading into the playoffs.
The EPA-based team tiers reflect this as well. Last week brought the comical realization that these two teams were pretty much dead even in total EPA/play, and after playing each other their logos still overlap almost perfectly. All losses count the same in the end, but this was about as good of a loss as a team can get.
Offense
Cowboys Offensive Efficiency
Grade | Rank | |
---|---|---|
Offensive DVOA | 8.6% | 9th |
Pass DVOA | 24.2% | 10th |
Run DVOA | -4.2% | 14th |
EPA/Play | 0.116 | 2nd |
EPA/Dropback | 0.215 | 2nd |
EPA/Rush | -0.050 | 10th |
As was the case for the team as a whole, the offense largely remained steady this week in terms of efficiency. It was an uneven performance within the game, though, as the Cowboys engineered long drives with chunk plays in the first and fourth quarters but largely struggled in the second and third quarters.
That’s partially a reflection of the caliber of defense they faced, but also a reflection (to some degree) of the absence of Tyron Smith at left tackle. We’ve seen better games from this offense, but the initial impression that this was a bad game from this unit doesn’t jive with the data.
Dak Prescott’s Efficiency
Grade | Rank | |
---|---|---|
QBR | 71.5 | 3rd |
EPA/play | 0.222 | 2nd |
CPOE | 3.0 | 7th |
DVOA | 17.7% | 5th |
DYAR | 1080 | 5th |
This wasn’t Dak Prescott’s best game of the season, but it was certainly an improvement from last week. He completed 62.5% of his passes for 253 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one big time throw against zero interceptions or turnover worthy plays.
The biggest area of concern, though, is Prescott’s time to throw in this game clocking in at 2.98 seconds. For the second straight week, Prescott was forced to hold the ball longer because his first read was often taken away. That’s a potentially huge Achilles heel in this type of timing-based offense, and one that needs to be corrected if the Cowboys want to have any staying power in the postseason.
Cowboys Offensive Line Efficiency
Grade | Rank | |
---|---|---|
Pressure Rate | 15.4% | 4th |
Adjusted Sack Rate | 7.2% | 17th |
Blown Block Rate | 2.48% | 15th |
Pass Block Win Rate | 57% | 18th |
Run Block Win Rate | 72% | 6th |
Adjusted Line Yards | 4.28 | 10th |
As mentioned earlier, Tyron Smith’s absence was felt in this game. Chuma Edoga wasn’t a turnstile, but he definitely struggled. Edoga gave up five pressures, two hits, and a sack. He had two especially egregious plays where he appeared to simply block the wrong way, likely a result of simply not having played in a game for some time.
That being said, Edoga can’t make those mental mistakes if he’s to be relied on as the primary backup for Smith, a left tackle who is still very good when playing but has proven he can’t be relied upon to actually take the field.
Defense
Cowboys Defensive Efficiency
Grade | Rank | |
---|---|---|
Defensive DVOA | -6.9% | 6th |
Pass Defense DVOA | -4.2% | 6th |
Run Defense DVOA | -10.2% | 16th |
Pass Rush Win Rate | 60% | 1st |
Run Stop Win Rate | 29% | 27th |
EPA/Play | -0.078 | 4th |
EPA/Dropback Allowed | -0.061 | 5th |
EPA/Rush Allowed | -0.104 | 14th |
All things considered, this was a good game for the Cowboys defense. They didn’t shut down Tyreek Hill or dominate this banged up offensive line or limit explosive plays, but they held their own. It was a classic bend-but-don’t-break type of performance, which is usually best case scenario against an offense as efficient as Miami.
Of course, the defense let up when they most needed a stop. On their final drive, the Cowboys were unable to defend their lead and let the Dolphins walk down the field, burning time off the clock and kicking the game winner as time expired. It was a massive letdown moment, but shouldn’t erase an otherwise really promising game against a great offense.
Cowboys Pass Coverage
Passer Rating Allowed | ADOT When Targeted | Air Yards Allowed | Yards After Catch | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trevon Diggs | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 1.0 | 15.9 | 6 | 20 |
Stephon Gilmore | 80 | 44 | 55.0% | 85.5 | 11.2 | 410 | 192 |
DaRon Bland | 81 | 42 | 51.9% | 46.5 | 12.2 | 364 | 189 |
Jourdan Lewis | 60 | 42 | 70.0% | 111.7 | 7.9 | 277 | 222 |
Jayron Kearse | 35 | 29 | 82.9% | 102.5 | 7.9 | 206 | 115 |
Malik Hooker | 10 | 8 | 80.0% | 118.8 | 9.8 | 76 | 84 |
Donovan Wilson | 22 | 18 | 81.8% | 128.6 | 5.3 | 62 | 105 |
Juanyeh Thomas | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 90.9 | 3.9 | 5 | 52 |
Leighton Vander Esch | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 87.2 | 0.4 | -1 | 44 |
Markquese Bell | 42 | 29 | 69.0% | 85.2 | 2.0 | 9 | 249 |
Damone Clark | 27 | 22 | 81.5% | 103.1 | 1.6 | 13 | 143 |
The Dolphins have a nearly impossible to defend passing game, with two electric fast receivers that are even more dangerous after the catch. The more senior corners on this team, Stephon Gilmore and Jourdan Lewis, predictably struggled. They combined to allow eight completions on 12 targets. Meanwhile, Donovan Wilson and Jayron Kearse failed to force a single incompletion across their combined eight targets.
One secondary player who did do well? DaRon Bland, of course. He saw five targets – all of them against Hill – and only yielded one catch all day. Of course, that one catch did go for 12 yards and a first down, but that’s a pretty good stat line when facing arguably the best receiver in the league.
Get more related news on dailysportnews.co.uk
Leave a Reply