Playoff push: What the Falcons need to happen in order to make 2023 postseason

Playoff push: What the Falcons need to happen in order to make 2023 postseason
Playoff push: What the Falcons need to happen in order to make 2023 postseason

Playoff push: What the Falcons need to happen in order to make 2023 postseason

Yes. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, there’s actually a 12% chance the Atlanta Falcons make the 2023 postseason field.

Playoff push: What the Falcons need to happen in order to make 2023 postseason
Playoff push: What the Falcons need to happen in order to make 2023 postseason

They’re 7-8 entering Week 17, with a road contest on tap Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Chicago Bears.

“I’ve been around this league for long enough to know what’s supposed to happen usually doesn’t,” Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said. “The only thing we can control is getting ready to go on the road to play a good Bears team.”

Before getting deep into the weeds, let’s take a look at the NFC South standings after 16 weeks of play.

Table inside Article
Overall Record Division Record Conference Record
Buccaneers 8-7 3-1 6-4
Falcons 7-8 3-2 4-6
Saints 7-8 2-2 4-6
Panthers 2-13 1-4 1-10

Because of their overall record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only team in the NFC South lead at the moment.

Although both the Falcons and the Saints from New Orleans are just one game away from elimination, the Falcons are currently leading their division. Following their defeat by the Buccaneers in Week 13, the Carolina Panthers were declared out of the running.

Nixing the Panthers, the schedule is as follows for the Falcons, Buccaneers and Saints.

  • Falcons: Bears in Week 17, Saints in Week 18
  • Buccaneers: Saints in Week 17, Panthers in Week 18
  • Saints: Buccaneers in Week 17, Falcons in Week 18

The Buccaneers hold most of the power right now.

If the Buccaneers beat the Saints on Sunday, Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South division title. The Buccaneers would also do so if they tie the Saints and the Falcons lose to the Bears.

Say the Buccaneers lose to the Saints, though. And the Falcons beat the Bears. Then, the Falcons, Buccaneers and Saints all stand at 8-8 overall and 3-2 in the division.

Well, even then, the Buccaneers would be in control because they hold the advantage in common games, the third divisional tiebreaker.

If the Buccaneers lose to the Saints and the Panthers, then whoever wins between the Falcons and Saints in Week 18 would claim the NFC South.

It’s easy to explain the Saints here: The win alone would guarantee the Saints the division title because then they’d have a 9-8 overall record, while the Falcons and Buccaneers would both be 8-9.

It’s more difficult to explain the Falcons, because it depends on their own Week 17 outcome. If the Falcons beat the Bears and Saints, then the division title is Atlanta’s with a 9-8 record for the same reason as New Orleans.

If the Falcons lose to the Bears and beat the Saints, though, the division is all tied up at 8-9. The Falcons hold the tiebreaker in this case because of head-to-head records:

  • Falcons vs. Saints/Buccaneers: 3-1
  • Buccaneers vs. Falcons/Saints: 2-2
  • Saints vs. Falcons/Buccaneers: 1-3

All that to say, here’s what Falcons fans should hope for: Obviously, Falcons win out. Otherwise, Saints beat Buccaneers in Week 17. Buccaneers lose to Panthers in Week 18.

Becoming the wild-card team is also still an option, but a lot more has to happen for those chips to fall in the Falcons’ favor since there are six teams — Falcons, Saints, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles — in the hunt for two spots.

Now, for the fun part. Allow me to dive into the numbers — or at least run the New York Times playoff simulator and share its findings. Below is each scenario and the Falcons’ postseason chances if that specific situation were to happen.

NOTE: Simulation shows both divisional and wild-card playoff possibilities. The percentages may vary by 1-2% depending on the simulation ran.

NFC SOUTH; WEEK 17

  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers – 26%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers – 13%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers – 19%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers – 0%

NFC SOUTH; WEEKS 17-18

  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 27%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 100%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 28%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 26%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 100%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
  • Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%

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